Post by Admin on Jul 19, 2014 20:51:24 GMT -6
A good keeper system does three things, it allows teams to keep players that they like, rewards shrewd drafting by giving discounts on prior draft deals.
Who can you keep? You can keep any player who was on your roster at the end of the year.
So for returning players, once you understand the keeper system, let me know which players you are keeping as soon as you can and I will lock in the keeper cost for those players.
You can keep up to three players but it will cost you auction dollars. I will outline the two different options and then provide a few examples.
1. Keeper cost based on market value.
This method applies to all players on your current roster. The advantage if you choose this route is that you get the market value rather than getting in a bidding war.
The starting point to calculating keeper value is the average draft results, what real players are going for in auction drafts and not what ESPN analysts say they should go for. games.espn.go.com/fba/livedraftresults . These values are updated before the season. The values that will be used to base market value will be captured on midnight the night before the keepers will lock, regardless in future changes of market value.
These numbers are the starting point. I took the total number of baseline draft dollars for our league, $400 and multiplied it by the anticipated number of teams in the league.
12-team league- $4800
14-team league- $5600
16-team league- $6400
The total number of draft dollars in the livedraftresults- $1969 (This looks most like a 10-team league with $200 apiece with $31 left over) So these auctions are starting with $2000 total draft dollars.
So when you divide how much cheddar we’re working with by $2000, you get the following multipliers to make an equal number
12-team league- 2.4
14- team league- 2.8
16- team league- 3.2
18- team league- 3.6
So to figure the keeper cost based on current auction value, multiply the value at games.espn.go.com/fba/livedraftresults by those multipliers. What’s the advantage?
Now for the second method
2. Based on prior auction price
This method rewards savvy auction drafters and those who may have just got lucky. This option will be where some real value can emerge and is simple to figure.
Who can I use this method on? Players who were drafted in the previous year’s draft and who you either kept on your roster or traded for during the season. Unless there is a special circumstance, all players who were acquired on the waiver wire, are ineligible to be kept, even if you dropped the player and reacquired them.
If you traded the player, and they were traded back to you, you can keep them in this way. A player who was drafted, dropped, acquired, and traded to your team, is ineligible. Basically, only players who were drafted and not dropped are eligible.
So then, the keeper value is figured by taking last year’s auction value and adding $10 to it. As long as their keeper value is determined by their auction value, every year, their value goes up $10 dollars. If you were able to get a super-great deal, say Stephen Curry for $38 dollars in last year’s draft, you could now keep him for $48 dollars and anyone who traded for Curry would also be trading for a 2014 keeper cost of $58, which increases Curry’s trade value which will lead to more trade options during the season.
So you see how we must determine the number of teams before we determine whether a player will be kept based on previous year’s value or their current auction market value.
Once the keeper cost is settled, the dollar amount will be deducted from the $400 auction budget of each team.
Advantages of this two option system:
Rewards shrewd auction drafters.
Adjusts keeper prices for players whose value has dropped or who were overpaid for the previous year.
Adjusts keeper prices to fair market value if the number of teams in the league fluctuates.
Makes the Auction draft go faster.
Varies keeper strategy.
Examples
As of now, my keepers are Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis. Russell Westbrook’s ESPN auction value is $7 but his live draft results value is $38.5.
I acquired Westbrook via trade. His 2012 auction price was $192.
So Westbrook’s auction price based keeper cost for 2013 is $202. That’s based on a 16-team league and he is coming back from injury.
Based on his market value, his cost in a 12-team league is $94, 14-team league is $109, and a 16-team league is $125. Under this system, I would chose his auction value price rather than his auction price.
Anthony Davis- I drafted the brow in a 16-team league for $44 dollars. He was worth about that much throughout the year. His auction price keeper cost for 2013 is $54. His current auction value is $26.8. So his value based price would be $65 for a 12-team league, $76 for a 14-team, and $87 for a 16-team league. In this case, the auction price of $54 is better.
Some other examples
Kyrie Irving
2012 auction price: $149
Auction based keeper cost: $159
current auction value: $54.2
12-team value: $132
14-team value: $154
16-team value: $176
With Irving, the option depends on how many teams are in the league. Let’s look at a player who was exorbitantly overpaid for in last year’s auction.
Andrew Bynum
2012 auction price: $141
Auction based keeper cost: $151
current auction value: $3.1
12-team value: $8
14-team value: $9
16-team value: $10
So even Bynum, if his owner wants to try it again, has value in this keeper system despite being a total disaster last season.
Let’s look at another great deal based on the 2012 auction
Paul George
2012 auction price: $35
Auction based keeper cost: $45
current auction value: $52.9
12-team value: $129
14-team value: $150
16-team value: $172
Paul George is a candidate for a long-term keeper whose +$10 yearly keeper cost increase won’t turn into a bad deal for many, many years.
One more. A player who was elite last year, a superstar, the best player on the planet, and perhaps one of the greatest human beings of all time.
Kevin Durant
2012 auction price: $248
Auction based keeper cost: $258
current auction value: $83.7
12-team value: $204
14-team value: $238
16-team value: $272
This one is interesting, because though $258 seems like a crazy cost for Durant, his value in a 16-team league is even higher. If the league fills out at 16-teams, the owner may be better off keeping a better value on his roster and trying to nab Durant for a lower price in the auction. This system enhances strategy and I believe is both fun and fair.
Who can you keep? You can keep any player who was on your roster at the end of the year.
So for returning players, once you understand the keeper system, let me know which players you are keeping as soon as you can and I will lock in the keeper cost for those players.
You can keep up to three players but it will cost you auction dollars. I will outline the two different options and then provide a few examples.
1. Keeper cost based on market value.
This method applies to all players on your current roster. The advantage if you choose this route is that you get the market value rather than getting in a bidding war.
The starting point to calculating keeper value is the average draft results, what real players are going for in auction drafts and not what ESPN analysts say they should go for. games.espn.go.com/fba/livedraftresults . These values are updated before the season. The values that will be used to base market value will be captured on midnight the night before the keepers will lock, regardless in future changes of market value.
These numbers are the starting point. I took the total number of baseline draft dollars for our league, $400 and multiplied it by the anticipated number of teams in the league.
12-team league- $4800
14-team league- $5600
16-team league- $6400
The total number of draft dollars in the livedraftresults- $1969 (This looks most like a 10-team league with $200 apiece with $31 left over) So these auctions are starting with $2000 total draft dollars.
So when you divide how much cheddar we’re working with by $2000, you get the following multipliers to make an equal number
12-team league- 2.4
14- team league- 2.8
16- team league- 3.2
18- team league- 3.6
So to figure the keeper cost based on current auction value, multiply the value at games.espn.go.com/fba/livedraftresults by those multipliers. What’s the advantage?
Now for the second method
2. Based on prior auction price
This method rewards savvy auction drafters and those who may have just got lucky. This option will be where some real value can emerge and is simple to figure.
Who can I use this method on? Players who were drafted in the previous year’s draft and who you either kept on your roster or traded for during the season. Unless there is a special circumstance, all players who were acquired on the waiver wire, are ineligible to be kept, even if you dropped the player and reacquired them.
If you traded the player, and they were traded back to you, you can keep them in this way. A player who was drafted, dropped, acquired, and traded to your team, is ineligible. Basically, only players who were drafted and not dropped are eligible.
So then, the keeper value is figured by taking last year’s auction value and adding $10 to it. As long as their keeper value is determined by their auction value, every year, their value goes up $10 dollars. If you were able to get a super-great deal, say Stephen Curry for $38 dollars in last year’s draft, you could now keep him for $48 dollars and anyone who traded for Curry would also be trading for a 2014 keeper cost of $58, which increases Curry’s trade value which will lead to more trade options during the season.
So you see how we must determine the number of teams before we determine whether a player will be kept based on previous year’s value or their current auction market value.
Once the keeper cost is settled, the dollar amount will be deducted from the $400 auction budget of each team.
Advantages of this two option system:
Rewards shrewd auction drafters.
Adjusts keeper prices for players whose value has dropped or who were overpaid for the previous year.
Adjusts keeper prices to fair market value if the number of teams in the league fluctuates.
Makes the Auction draft go faster.
Varies keeper strategy.
Examples
As of now, my keepers are Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis. Russell Westbrook’s ESPN auction value is $7 but his live draft results value is $38.5.
I acquired Westbrook via trade. His 2012 auction price was $192.
So Westbrook’s auction price based keeper cost for 2013 is $202. That’s based on a 16-team league and he is coming back from injury.
Based on his market value, his cost in a 12-team league is $94, 14-team league is $109, and a 16-team league is $125. Under this system, I would chose his auction value price rather than his auction price.
Anthony Davis- I drafted the brow in a 16-team league for $44 dollars. He was worth about that much throughout the year. His auction price keeper cost for 2013 is $54. His current auction value is $26.8. So his value based price would be $65 for a 12-team league, $76 for a 14-team, and $87 for a 16-team league. In this case, the auction price of $54 is better.
Some other examples
Kyrie Irving
2012 auction price: $149
Auction based keeper cost: $159
current auction value: $54.2
12-team value: $132
14-team value: $154
16-team value: $176
With Irving, the option depends on how many teams are in the league. Let’s look at a player who was exorbitantly overpaid for in last year’s auction.
Andrew Bynum
2012 auction price: $141
Auction based keeper cost: $151
current auction value: $3.1
12-team value: $8
14-team value: $9
16-team value: $10
So even Bynum, if his owner wants to try it again, has value in this keeper system despite being a total disaster last season.
Let’s look at another great deal based on the 2012 auction
Paul George
2012 auction price: $35
Auction based keeper cost: $45
current auction value: $52.9
12-team value: $129
14-team value: $150
16-team value: $172
Paul George is a candidate for a long-term keeper whose +$10 yearly keeper cost increase won’t turn into a bad deal for many, many years.
One more. A player who was elite last year, a superstar, the best player on the planet, and perhaps one of the greatest human beings of all time.
Kevin Durant
2012 auction price: $248
Auction based keeper cost: $258
current auction value: $83.7
12-team value: $204
14-team value: $238
16-team value: $272
This one is interesting, because though $258 seems like a crazy cost for Durant, his value in a 16-team league is even higher. If the league fills out at 16-teams, the owner may be better off keeping a better value on his roster and trying to nab Durant for a lower price in the auction. This system enhances strategy and I believe is both fun and fair.